In the name of content, here are The Euro Yard’s 2024 Eurovision predictions.
This year at the Eurovision Song Contest is shaping up to be one of the most open fields we have seen in a while. Last year, this was not the case, as Sweden’s Loreen was a heavy favorite to win her second contest out of the gate. However, in 2024, the favorite in the betting odds has changed several times between national final season and the pre-parties. It has all the makings of a wild and unpredictable finish. That makes it more fun to issue predictions ahead of the contest and see how well (or not well) we did when it’s all done. You could say we got these predictions in before the (pre)party is over.
There is always some risk to a website such as this for making predictions, because they could be completely wrong and bring shame to us and our families for generations. Hey, we could also be right. Does it matter? Not really. In any event, the 2024 Eurovision predictions are below.
2024 Eurovision Predictions: First, The Semifinal Predictions
- Finland and Ireland will both qualify. I am not sure everyone would be on board with this, but I can explain. Both of these songs are going to be plays for the televote, and as we know, the semifinals are now fully determined by the voters without the input of national juries. The appeal of Finland’s song to viewers at home is obvious: It’s fun, it’s stupid, and it’s wild. Finland took a risk going with another wacky song on the heels of “Cha Cha Cha,” but I think they are going to make it. As for Ireland, their song is different from every other act in the contest in 2024. In Eurovision, there’s different-good, different-bad, and just different. Switzerland, for example, will likely turn out as different-good, and I would like to think Bambie’s song has the potential to be as well. They have performed well at the pre-parties and bookmakers seem to agree that it is looking OK for Bambie at present. It will also depend quite a bit on how it’s staged in May, which I think will be quite a bit more flashy than Ireland’s national final.
- Latvia’s NQ streak will continue, though it should not. Latvia is hurting to do well after not having made the Eurovision grand final since 2016. In fact, since Alexander Rybak won Eurovision way back in 2009, Latvia has only gotten to the final twice, and have finished last in their semifinal much more often (five times) than making the final. Dons is a fine singer, so why not this year? This song is clearly geared towards juries, who do not vote in the semifinals. Further, it drew a tough semifinal in the second: Greece, Switzerland, Austria, Belgium, Israel, and the Netherlands are going to get a lot of attention, and this song is buried in between two high-energy numbers. Despite my own opinion that Latvia deserves to qualify, there is a high probability this song gets lost.
- Croatia and The Netherlands will win their respective semifinals. To use basketball terminology, I see Croatia winning a televote-only semifinal as a slam dunk. Maybe Ukraine gets close, but Baby Lasagna will move on in grand fashion to the main event. As for the second semifinal, that will be much more competitive. I see The Netherlands coming first and Switzerland in second. Some buzz has been lost from the former and a lot of buzz has been generated from the latter, but Joost Klein is going last and I expect him to serve it that particular Thursday night. I do not think this is a harbinger of doom for Nemo, who will do just fine in the grand final, but I expect a good showing for the Dutch song.
And Now, The Grand Final Predictions
- Germany will finish bottom three again. This is not a reflection of how good the song is, by the way. When watching the German national final, I thought Isaak was the best vocalist I had heard. He’s got talent, but the likely top ten is very competitive. He would have to score consistently in jury or televote top tens to rack up noticeable points, and while I don’t think people will dislike it, it’s hard to see people going out of their way for this song, either.
- The winner will either be Italy or Switzerland. So now you say what, no Croatia? I can tell you one thing: I have heard Baby Lasagna sing other songs and he’s got a very nice voice. It does not come through in “Rim Tim Tagi Dim” just because the song calls for harsh vocals, but he’s still going to come up with Croatia’s best outcome in a long time. No, there are two songs I can picture with clarity performing the winner’s reprise on 11 May: Italy and Switzerland, but I have the most confidence in Italy. It can appeal to both juries and televoters, and Angelina Mango is one hell of a good performer. She won one of the toughest singing competitions in the world in a year where it was loaded with talent. Not to mention, Italy has done extremely well since returning to Eurovision in 2011, missing the top ten just twice but making the top five on six occasions (winning in 2021).
- The United Kingdom will not finish in the top ten. This is hardly going out on a limb, since 2022 was the only recent year of any success for the British, but unfortunately, I am not seeing Olly landing in the top ten. It might be the easiest of our 2024 Eurovision predictions, but no less disappointing for British Eurofans hoping for a breakthrough.
- Belgium will finish in the top ten in back-to-back years. Belgium did it three years in a row in the 2010s, but before that, you would have to go back to the 1970s to see them accomplish this. I think we are heading there this year. Mustii is a very captivating performer live; if the music video did not give that away, the pre-party performances did. If he stages the song well, this will qualify with ease and get into the top ten on Saturday.
2024 Eurovision Predictions: Toughest Countries to Predict
- Greece. Marina Satti’s song is pretty in-your-face, and my sense is that people are either going to love it or hate it with nothing in-between. Greece might have the biggest range of possible outcomes of any country at Eurovision in 2024. I would not be completely surprised to see it as the big, shocking NQ this year, nor would I be stunned to see it land at ninth or tenth in the grand final.
- Norway. The Eurofans online love this witchy song from Norvège, but they have not gotten a ton of traction from bookmakers and the buzz has gone to other countries. While nobody is talking about Norway, at least not to the extent of the serious contenders, I think it can (and should) qualify, but I truly have no idea if it will.
- Ireland. This coming right after I predicted they would qualify, I will say this: Much of it comes down to staging, which we won’t know until May. I predict Bambie will stage well and qualify, but it could go either way.
- Estonia. The Estonians went with a fun entry this year, but they’ve had other fun entries in the past that went nowhere. I feel like this one might fit that description but I have no confidence in that statement. I found the song a little tough to get into, but plenty of Eurofans love it. A worthy description of this song might be “borderline.”
