With a little over a month to go until the contest, the Eurovision 2025 odds have been stable, but very interesting.
When Måns Zelmerlöw announced he would participate in Melodifestivalen 2025, Sweden’s odds of winning the contest shot into first place. However, he did not win the national final – but Sweden remained in first, anyway. Where does Sweden stand now, and who else has a realistic chance?
Eurovision 2025 Odds: Top 10 as of 8 April
Sweden is at the top of the pack, with their song “Bara Bada Bastu” by KAJ leading the way at 26 percent odds. While that is the plurality choice, these odds are lower than some other leaders prior to the contest, with the exceptions of last year and 2021. Switzerland was the pre-contest leader throughout most of April, but they peaked out in about the same position as Sweden is now – the mid-20s.
However, in 2023, Sweden and Loreen were a much heavier favorite at around 40 percent in April. Ukraine, for reasons which should have been obvious at the time, were also favored in April 2022, in about the mid-30s. The winning Italian song from 2021, “Zitti e buoni,” was not the leader that year in April: It was Malta. However, Destiny’s odds never got above 20 percent.
All things considered, Sweden is in a decent spot. There have been bigger favorites at this point in the past five contests, but there have also been winning songs like Italy 2021 that were barely hanging in the top five until the contest started.
The Rest of the Top 10
Austria, as of now, is in its highest position in a long while. One of our personal favorites, “Who the Hell Is Edgar?” (2023), was beloved by fans before the contest, but never cracked the top five. JJ’s song has, at times, touched the top spot. This is Austria’s best chance of winning since “Rise Like a Phoenix” in 2014 – which, by the way, was not a favorite at all until the contest began. Conchita’s victory 11 years ago was very much considered a surprise or an upset.
France has gotten close several times in recent years, but still has yet to break their dry spell which dates back to 1977. As of now, they are the only other song to have greater than a 10 percent chance of winning the contest. Even at that, they are lagging behind Sweden and Austria. France has never dropped out of the top ten during this entire process, but they have never been in first, either.
Finland is a notable song in that it has been well-received by fans, and at one point, it peaked out in second place. From Finland down to Belgium, Estonia, and the rest, it is uncommon for a song to come back and win from this far down the odds, but it’s not impossible, either.
Albania has the potential to be a great story. “Zjerm” started in dead-last after winning Festivali i Këngës 63 but has climbed into the top ten. The country has not even gotten within the top 20 of the odds in the last decade, let alone the top ten. You have to go back to 2012 and “Suus” for the last time Albania even came close to the direction in which they are trending. It is not an exaggeration to say this is probably one of the most pre-show hyped Albanian entries ever, if not the most.
Eurovision 2025 Odds: Outside the Top 10
Malta has fallen outside the top ten. “Serving,” the song formerly known as “Kant,” which sounds a lot like something else, has been a fan favorite – of that there is no doubt. However, while it looks like Miriana Conte might well be performing in the grand final, a win seems unlikely.
San Marino is in the middle of the table of the odds, maybe a little higher in 15th place as of 8 April. If you think this is their highest placement since “Adrenalina,” that’s not true: “Stripper” got a little higher in the odds before falling back, and then not qualifying.
The Big Five country with the worst odds placement as of today is Spain, in 28th position. Its odds crashed after Benidorm Fest, but have rebounded slightly. Perhaps when the viewers see what a queen Melody is, it will rise up a little. Please note: It is impossible for Spain to finish 28th as there will only be 26 songs in the final.
Have Pre-Parties Adjusted the Eurovision 2025 Odds?
Of the two there have been so far, no. At least, nothing worth mentioning. The top few countries have been relatively stable for several weeks. These events do not always cause a stir. However, there are exceptions.
Nemo’s “The Code” in 2024 was not the favorite at the end of national final season, though it was towards the top of the odds. Questions existed as to whether or not they “could pull it off live,” so to speak. In the handful of days after PrePartyES, however, Nemo shot up into first when it became clear that, yes, they could.
We have not seen any movement like this yet in 2025, but there are more events to follow. At this stage, Eurovision in Basel itself is the major intervening factor that will or will not move the odds.
