What are Belgium’s 2025 Eurovision chances behind their nationally-selected song, “Strobe Lights?”
The pre-show odds indicated that Red Sebastian’s entry was the favorite, but beyond that, the overall contest odds showed that he could help lead Belgium to their second victory. Belgium is one of the original or founding seven countries of Eurovision from 1956, so you might have thought they’d win more than once in almost 70 years, but 1986 was their sole victory. Could 2025 be the second?
About Those Odds
We all pay attention to the Eurovision and national final winning odds at some point, even if they amount to little more than background noise. With less than 10 entries even heard at this point, they are, in essence, worthless.
However, seeing a country like Belgium up near the top for any reason whatsoever was quite the surprise. To say it is unusual is an understatement. Hype and buzz built up around Belgium’s national selection prior to Eurosong, which took place on 1 February. “Strobe Lights” won that contest in a landslide, despite the fact that there were several other worthy entries around it.
How Was “Strobe Lights,” Anyway?
In general, it was a respectable effort. The song has clear televote appeal, but could get some jury support as well given that the vocals are worthy enough. (Not that juries always factor those in everywhere, like we saw at Benidorm Fest.)
Using our new and as-yet unrevealed scoring system, where we evaluate numerous categories to give as close to a true determination of a performance as we can, we are going to break down Belgium’s entry (based on the national final performance) point by point. We’re ripping it apart, as they say.
Overall Impression
Enjoyability of the act: Above average
This was generally a fine song to which to listen, and it checked a few boxes that a successful Eurovision song might have.
Appeal of the sound: Average
The song at times operated at a higher octave than I might have liked, but it was not executed badly.
Memorable quality of the song: Above average
Compared to the other songs at Belgium Eurosong, it was a clear standout. Even on its own, absent the other Belgian songs, it would probably stand out from others based on the tone of the music and the energy level of the performance.
Energy level: Above average
It could have gotten “good” or “very good,” but there were some lower points in the song where, probably for stylistic reasons, the volume and intensity were a little bit muted.
Performer’s conveyance of emotion: Average
I think this song could have actually gone bolder than it did. The foundation was there, and while he did fine, he had some runway to amp up his own intensity.
Vocals
Were the vocals appealing: Above average
Red Sebastian is a fine singer.
Clarity of diction: Above average
No real objections here. I could understand him against the music just fine.
Adequacy of range: Above average
He put forth some variety and proved his abilities.
Projecting volume: Average (at best)
This is one of two areas where I think the song could have been better. As stated before, the quieter moments were likely stylistic choices, but at points, it was almost too quiet.
Was the singer on-key: Above average
No complaints and no major miscues.
Composition
Uniqueness of song: Above average to Good
Definitely a standout at Belgium Eurosong. Probably would not be a lot similar to it at Eurovision.
Complexity of song: Average (at best)
This is the other area where I wanted to see more. The difference between a good and a great song, especially at Eurovision, is in many cases whether or not it hits a second gear. “Strobe Lights” has a good first gear but there is no second – I was looking for a change-up of some sort to add a layer of complexity.
Depth of lyrics: Average
Certainly better than some others but not necessarily remarkable.
Repetitiveness of lyrics: Average
It got a little repetitive in parts but nothing that detracted from its score.
Staging
Usage of design elements: Above average
The hoist and the vivid lights were effective in drawing attention to the song and the singer himself.
Energy level of performance: Average
As stated before, I think he could have taken this even further than he did, but by no means was the energy level bad.
Did the staging fit the song: Above average
Sometimes, an entry can put on a good visual presentation which has nothing to do with the context of the song. That was not a problem here.
Did the staging accentuate the performance: Good
The staging arguably helped make the overall performance what it was.
Final Evaluation: Above Average
Comparing “Strobe Lights” to Other Entries
What other entries, as of 6 February? There are just a handful of other songs released as of this writing, so to discount their chances or declare them a frontrunner when the vast majority of songs are unreleased is unwise.
One thing we can do, based off of the analysis we just conducted, is get a sense for where we think this would fall on a continuum. It depends on what sort of year we have with all 37 songs in the bank. If it’s a lean year on the Eurovision stage, then there will be less competition for Belgium, but if we somehow get closer to the 2024 field, which had a lot of average-to-good songs (but no great ones), the obvious result is that this will have to work harder to stand out. At this stage, we do not know which way it is going, though our preliminary read is that this is not going to be as consistent and strong of a field as last year. Take that for whatever it’s worth.
Current Prediction on “Strobe Lights”
Since someone out there is going to ask: First off, it is difficult to predict a Eurovision outcome three months before the contest when 30 songs still need to be released.
What we will say on The Euro Yard is that its scoring profile, as indicated above, denotes a likely qualifier and a possible Top 10 trajectory. We are not willing to certify that, nor anything beyond a Top 10 finish, but it fits the profile of a song that gets there. That does not mean it will, because favored songs have flopped at Eurovision before, and will again.
